Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
To see the actual behavior of the economy, as in any other sector, we need to have objective variables.
This index (BDI) is very interesting because it is global and quite representative of the real economy, the underlying economy or speculative financial economy.
Its origins date back to 1744 when London bosses and captains met to negotiate transport-product type and quantity, and freight. If we know that part of northern Europe, from the Baltic to Scotland, through Scandinavia, has been a constant economic space and continued throughout the centuries so that to refer this index is not out of place.
It is from the end of s. XX that their ratios and indices refer to global trade and we can find data chartered tons daily in major world ports and routes, prices, types of ship, etc.
In turn, to prevent oscillations, see indexes average weights, logarithmic, more or less time, etc. reading it every day can have dramatic oscillations.
Reiterate your interest in referring the level of real-world economic activity: transported goods are bought and sold.
While it is true that the new financial engineering, at certain times, it has come to be globally ratios real 25%, 75% economy-speculative financial economy, currently set at Parameter “Smokeless” is very wise and interesting.
With its daily monitoring can predict the behavior of large economic areas (North America, Europe and China) but also economic actors minor movements (eg, massive fires in eastern Russia in summer 2010 there was an increase in activity by sending wheat grain).
With its continuous observation economic movements are noticed as increased coal imports to China by a colder winter than normal, or every time he gets the official price of money to hold / cool the “bubble” economy of construction in the country, traffic decreases corrugated iron stops importing from Australia for civil building structures.
It is a chart sensitive and undistorted. When political leaders say that recovery is being or will be in L, U, V or W, just go to internet and there we see the reality: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND.
For others, it is not widely used in America and Europe will be a differential competitive factor for the organization that use it in their forecasts.